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Youth Substance  Use: State Estimates From the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

Appendix B: Model-Based Estimates

This appendix includes tables of model-based estimates for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. They have been estimated using the hierarchical Bayes process as described in Appendix G.

The model-based estimates in the marijuana incidence table (Table B.7B) were generated by special calculations. Specifically, the prediction intervals for this incidence measure were based on posterior variances generated by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) process for both of the component prevalence rates. Because the survey-weighted hierarchical Bayes algorithm estimates the small area prevalences for each binary drug use attribute separately, it provides no direct means to estimate the posterior correlation between the two prevalences. Moreover, because this correction is required to approximate the variance of the incidence rate, the simple Pearson correlation across States was used.

10829

Table B.1A Estimated Numbers (in Thousands) of Past Month Users of Alcohol, by Age Group and State: 1999

State

Total

AGE GROUP (Years)

12-17

18-25

26 or Older

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Total1

102,514

     

3,843

     

16,148

     

82,523

     

Alabama

1,255

(1,100

-

1,416)

52

(41

-

65)

246

(223

-

268)

957

(810

-

1,113)

Alaska

258

(239

-

277)

11

(9

-

13)

42

(38

-

45)

206

(187

-

223)

Arizona

1,829

(1,652

-

2,008)

73

(59

-

88)

273

(245

-

300)

1,484

(1,312

-

1,655)

Arkansas

725

(644

-

810)

38

(31

-

47)

134

(120

-

148)

553

(476

-

634)

California

12,102

(11,418

-

12,788)

450

(406

-

497)

1,806

(1,708

-

1,903)

9,846

(9,172

-

10,518)

Colorado

1,988

(1,822

-

2,150)

74

(60

-

90)

288

(264

-

311)

1,625

(1,465

-

1,777)

Connecticut

1,420

(1,280

-

1,560)

48

(37

-

60)

196

(176

-

215)

1,176

(1,042

-

1,307)

Delaware

309

(281

-

337)

11

(9

-

13)

44

(40

-

48)

254

(227

-

280)

District of Columbia

188

(169

-

207)

5

(3

-

6)

29

(26

-

32)

155

(136

-

173)

Florida

5,779

(5,425

-

6,134)

155

(133

-

180)

724

(681

-

766)

4,900

(4,553

-

5,247)

Georgia

2,685

(2,419

-

2,958)

102

(85

-

122)

433

(390

-

475)

2,150

(1,895

-

2,409)

Hawaii

431

(388

-

474)

16

(12

-

19)

61

(54

-

68)

355

(313

-

397)

Idaho

459

(415

-

503)

18

(15

-

23)

75

(67

-

83)

365

(323

-

408)

Illinois

4,849

(4,580

-

5,119)

179

(158

-

202)

772

(734

-

810)

3,897

(3,634

-

4,159)

Indiana

2,180

(1,974

-

2,389)

79

(64

-

97)

364

(331

-

396)

1,737

(1,539

-

1,937)

Iowa

1,276

(1,169

-

1,382)

51

(42

-

61)

221

(207

-

235)

1,003

(900

-

1,105)

Kansas

1,062

(971

-

1,154)

39

(30

-

48)

175

(160

-

189)

849

(761

-

936)

Kentucky

1,098

(962

-

1,240)

45

(35

-

57)

223

(202

-

244)

829

(701

-

966)

Louisiana

1,483

(1,327

-

1,641)

88

(72

-

106)

296

(272

-

320)

1,098

(951

-

1,249)

Maine

498

(456

-

541)

18

(15

-

22)

77

(71

-

83)

403

(363

-

443)

Maryland

2,086

(1,890

-

2,281)

55

(43

-

69)

265

(238

-

292)

1,765

(1,577

-

1,952)

Massachusetts

2,967

(2,710

-

3,221)

111

(91

-

133)

411

(378

-

443)

2,445

(2,196

-

2,684)

Michigan

3,701

(3,503

-

3,901)

133

(116

-

152)

606

(573

-

638)

2,962

(2,770

-

3,155)

Minnesota

2,171

(2,007

-

2,334)

87

(72

-

103)

368

(343

-

390)

1,716

(1,558

-

1,870)

Mississippi

701

(614

-

792)

43

(34

-

53)

147

(132

-

163)

510

(428

-

598)

Missouri

2,097

(1,900

-

2,296)

75

(60

-

91)

354

(323

-

383)

1,669

(1,481

-

1,857)

Montana

420

(388

-

452)

20

(17

-

24)

61

(55

-

66)

340

(309

-

370)

See notes at end of table. (continued)

10829

Table B.1A Estimated Numbers (in Thousands) of Past Month Users of Alcohol, by Age Group and State: 1999

State

Total

AGE GROUP (Years)

12-17

18-25

26 or Older

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Nebraska

727

(671

-

785)

27

(22

-

33)

133

(124

-

141)

567

(513

-

621)

Nevada

807

(734

-

880)

26

(21

-

32)

96

(86

-

107)

685

(613

-

754)

New Hampshire

558

(516

-

599)

20

(16

-

24)

80

(73

-

86)

458

(418

-

496)

New Jersey

3,422

(3,107

-

3,737)

108

(89

-

129)

467

(423

-

510)

2,847

(2,541

-

3,149)

New Mexico

727

(669

-

785)

34

(28

-

42)

122

(110

-

134)

571

(516

-

625)

New York

7,140

(6,683

-

7,598)

261

(226

-

300)

1,126

(1,065

-

1,184)

5,753

(5,310

-

6,195)

North Carolina

2,298

(2,052

-

2,552)

84

(68

-

102)

383

(345

-

422)

1,831

(1,593

-

2,078)

North Dakota

289

(267

-

310)

16

(13

-

18)

57

(53

-

60)

217

(196

-

237)

Ohio

4,216

(3,982

-

4,451)

151

(133

-

171)

690

(656

-

724)

3,374

(3,145

-

3,605)

Oklahoma

1,006

(888

-

1,128)

48

(39

-

59)

190

(172

-

209)

767

(656

-

884)

Oregon

1,433

(1,298

-

1,570)

46

(37

-

56)

212

(194

-

229)

1,176

(1,043

-

1,306)

Pennsylvania

4,876

(4,597

-

5,155)

155

(135

-

177)

700

(665

-

733)

4,021

(3,747

-

4,295)

Rhode Island

414

(377

-

451)

15

(12

-

18)

60

(55

-

65)

339

(304

-

373)

South Carolina

1,077

(953

-

1,207)

48

(38

-

59)

183

(163

-

203)

847

(729

-

971)

South Dakota

316

(291

-

341)

16

(13

-

19)

59

(55

-

63)

242

(218

-

266)

Tennessee

1,561

(1,374

-

1,756)

63

(50

-

79)

266

(235

-

297)

1,232

(1,053

-

1,421)

Texas

6,796

(6,414

-

7,183)

324

(290

-

360)

1,258

(1,193

-

1,322)

5,215

(4,846

-

5,587)

Utah

478

(416

-

544)

26

(20

-

32)

103

(92

-

116)

349

(291

-

411)

Vermont

274

(252

-

296)

10

(9

-

13)

41

(38

-

44)

223

(202

-

243)

Virginia

2,510

(2,268

-

2,754)

71

(56

-

88)

385

(347

-

422)

2,054

(1,820

-

2,290)

Washington

2,364

(2,135

-

2,593)

78

(63

-

95)

324

(293

-

355)

1,961

(1,739

-

2,180)

West Virginia

505

(445

-

568)

22

(17

-

28)

95

(85

-

105)

388

(331

-

449)

Wisconsin

2,497

(2,304

-

2,688)

105

(88

-

122)

387

(359

-

413)

2,006

(1,816

-

2,188)

Wyoming

211

(193

-

230)

11

(9

-

13)

39

(36

-

42)

161

(143

-

179)

NOTE: Estimates are based on a survey-weighted hierarchical Bayes estimation approach, and the prediction (credible) intervals are generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques.

1 This estimate is the weighted average of the hierarchical Bayes estimates across all states and the District of Columbia, and typically is not equal to the direct sample weighted estimate for the nation.

Source: SAMHSA, Office of Applied Studies, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, 1999 CAI.

10829

Table B.1B Percentages Reporting Past Month Use of Alcohol, by Age Group and State: 1999

State

Total

AGE GROUP (Years)

12-17

18-25

26 or Older

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Estimate

Prediction Interval

Total1

46.4

     

16.6

     

56.7

     

48.7

     

Alabama

34.7

(30.4

-

39.1)

14.1

(11.1

-

17.6)

51.9

(47.1

-

56.5)

34.5

(29.2

-

40.1)

Alaska

53.4

(49.5

-

57.4)

17.2

(14.0

-

20.7)

60.2

(55.0

-

65.2)

58.5

(53.3

-

63.6)

Arizona

48.6

(43.9

-

53.3)

17.1

(13.9

-

20.6)

54.9

(49.4

-

60.3)

52.2

(46.1

-

58.2)

Arkansas

34.0

(30.2

-

38.0)

17.0

(13.7

-

20.7)

48.2

(43.3

-

53.2)

33.9

(29.2

-

38.9)

California

47.4

(44.7

-

50.1)

16.1

(14.5

-

17.7)

52.5

(49.7

-

55.4)

51.0

(47.6

-

54.5)

Colorado

59.5

(54.5

-

64.3)

20.8

(16.9

-

25.3)

66.1

(60.5

-

71.3)

63.7

(57.4

-

69.7)

Connecticut

52.8

(47.5

-

57.9)

19.0

(14.7

-

23.8)

64.7

(58.2

-

70.9)

55.0

(48.8

-

61.2)

Delaware

49.7

(45.2

-

54.2)

17.2

(13.7

-

21.1)

57.9

(52.5

-

63.1)

52.7

(47.1

-

58.2)

District of Columbia

44.3

(39.8

-

48.7)

11.2

(8.2

-

14.8)

52.4

(47.2

-

57.6)

47.2

(41.6

-

52.8)

Florida

46.3

(43.5

-

49.2)

13.4

(11.4

-

15.5)

54.3

(51.1

-

57.5)

49.1

(45.6

-

52.6)

Georgia

43.0

(38.8

-

47.4)

15.3

(12.7

-

18.3)

51.3

(46.3

-

56.3)

45.5

(40.1

-

50.9)

Hawaii

44.4

(40.0

-

48.9)

16.3

(12.9

-

20.2)

52.1

(46.0

-

58.1)

46.8

(41.3

-

52.4)

Idaho

43.5

(39.4

-

47.7)

14.2

(11.2

-

17.6)

46.8

(42.0

-

51.6)

47.7

(42.2

-

53.3)

Illinois

49.9

(47.1

-

52.6)

18.0

(15.9

-

20.2)

60.0

(57.0

-

63.0)

52.4

(48.8

-

55.9)

Indiana

44.4

(40.2

-

48.6)

15.5

(12.5

-

18.9)

55.4

(50.4

-

60.3)

46.4

(41.1

-

51.7)

Iowa

53.6

(49.1

-

58.0)

20.2

(16.6

-

24.1)

70.4

(65.8

-

74.7)

55.3

(49.6

-

60.9)

Kansas

49.7

(45.4

-

54.0)

16.0

(12.4

-

20.0)

61.1

(56.0

-

66.1)

52.8

(47.3

-

58.2)

Kentucky

33.6

(29.5

-

38.0)

13.7

(10.7

-

17.1)

51.4

(46.6

-

56.3)

33.2

(28.0

-

38.6)

Louisiana

41.8

(37.5

-

46.3)

20.9

(17.2

-

25.0)

57.8

(53.0

-

62.4)

42.1

(36.4

-

47.9)

Maine

47.8

(43.7

-

51.9)